Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, June 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic headlines. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 121 points and the Nasdaq up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (4.27%), but gains late Tuesday should help keep this morning’s mortgage rates nearly unchanged. If you saw an intraday improvement in rates Tuesday, you should see an increase in this morning’s pricing. The financial markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday.

14/32


Bonds


30 yr - 4.27%

121


Dow


38,956

35


NASDAQ


17,897

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Positive


Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

We had two moderately important economic releases posted early this morning. The monthly release was May's Housing Starts report that showed new home groundbreakings fell 5.5% last month, dropping to their weakest level since June 2020. We can’t blame more volatile multi-family starts, such as apartment buildings, as the cause of the big decline because single-family homes, that are more related to mortgage rates than multi-family, fell 5.2% themselves. A secondary reading that tracks newly issued permits that help predict future groundbreakings also declined. These readings signal weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector, making the report good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report doesn’t carry a high level of importance in the markets, preventing a stronger reaction to the news.

Medium


Negative


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also at 8:30 AM ET was the release of last week’s unemployment update. It revealed 238,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were made, down from the previous week’s revised 243,000. Declining initial claims are a sign of strength in the employment sector, but the number was very close to expectations of 237,000 new filings. We are labeling the report neutral to slightly negative for rates.

Medium


Unknown


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

The week’s calendar closes tomorrow with two late morning economic reports. One is May's Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors. This release tracks resales of existing homes, giving us a measurement of housing sector strength. It is considered to be moderately important to the markets but can influence mortgage rates if it shows a sizable difference between forecasts and actual results. Analysts are currently expecting to see a modest decline in sales. As with most economic reports we get, weaker than expected numbers would be favorable to mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The last report of the week will be May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The LEI is a Conference Board release that attempts to predict economic activity over the next several months. Since it comes from a business research group and not a governmental agency, its impact on rates is often minimal. Current forecasts show a 0.3% decline in the indicators. A larger decline would be good news for the bond and mortgage markets.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Net Equity Financial Mortgage

2267 Langhorne-Yardley Road
Langhorne, PA 19047